Market Morning Briefing: Pound Has Support Near 1.3758 – Action Forex
Equities look mixed. While Dow can fall below resistance at 36000, Dax can rise to 15800/900 before coming off from there. Nikkei has resistance at 29250/500 which if holds can produce a fall towards 28500 or lower. A break above 29500 is needed for view to again turn bullish. Shanghai is bullish while above 3550. Nifty and Sensex is bullish for the near term while above 18000 and 60000 respectively.
Dow (35756.88,+15.73, +0.04%) has risen. As mentioned previously, our view is to see a corrective fall from resistance near 36000 towards 35500-35000.
DAX (15757.06, +157.83, +1.01%) has risen too and is trading near the upper end of the range of 15800-15400 mentioned previously. Our view is bullish to see a test of 15800/900 on the upside before we see a corrective fall towards 15400 again.
Nikkei (28946.61, -159.40, -0.55%) has come down below 29000 today as resistance mentioned near 29500/250 has held well. The range of 28000-29500 can hold for some more time before we see a break on either side. Possible rise above 29500 towards 30000 and 31000 looks likely in the medium term.
Shanghai (3562.46, -35.18, -0.98%) has dipped today. While above 3550,the view is still bullish to see a rise towards 3600/3700.Only a strong break below 3550 will indicate bearishness towards 3450/3425. Watch price action near 3550.
Nifty (18268.40, +143, +0.79%) is holding within the range of 18000-18400 and an eventual rise towards 18600/800 looks likely.
Sensex (61350.26, +383.21, +0.63%) has bounced back after testing the support at 60000.The view is now bullish to see a test of 62000 on the upside.
Commodities have dipped a bit today and can fall some more in the near term before bouncing back. Gold can test 1780/60 while below 1800 as Silver is headed towards 23.50. Copper can fall to 4.45/35 before rising again. Brent and WTI have supports near 85/86 and 81/82 and can rise towards 87.36-90 and 85/86 respectively in the near term.
Brent (86.13) and WTI (84.23) have support near 85/86 and 81/82 respectively which if hold could be bullish for the prices in the near term. We continue to look for a possible rise towards 87.36-90 and 85/86 respectively in the near term.
Gold (1788.80) fell back to levels below 1790 as it could not sustain the rise above 1800 seen yesterday. While below 1800, it is again heading towards 1780/60 on the downside. Unless a sustained break above 1800 is seen it is difficult to turn bullish on the price.
Silver (24.08) has dipped along with Gold. A fall to 23.50 is possible before a bounce back is seen again.
Copper (4.4930) has fallen as expected and has scope to fall to 4.45/35 before a bounce back is seen in the medium term.
Quiet action seen in most currencies just now. Dollar Index needs to see sustained trade above 94 to rise towards 94.50 on the upside. Near term range of 93.50-94.50 may hold. Euro can be bearish towards 1.15 while below 1.16. EURJPY can trade within 131.85-132.70 for the near term. Aussie and Pound looks bullish for the very near term. USDJPY has risen as expected and can continue to move up towards 114.50 before falling from there. USDINR may range within 74.90-75.20/25. A break below 74.90 can drag it lower towards 74.70/50. An eventual fall below 74.90 looks more likely. USDCNY can hold above support at 6.3750.
Dollar Index (93.92) is hovering near 94 and while above support at 93.50 there is scope for a rise to 94.50 on the upside on a confirmed break above 94. On the other hand, a fall below 93.75 is needed for the index to again fall to 93.50. A range of 93.50-94.00 may hold just now and a break on either side can take the index either towards 93.50 or to 94.50 in the near term.
Euro (1.1598) can be ranged within 1.1625-1.1575 for the near term before breaking on either side of the range. While below 1.16, view is bearish for an eventual fall towards 1.15.
EURJPY (132.26) is trading within 131.85-132.70 and a break on either side of the range is needed to see which way the cross moves further. For now, view is to see some ranged sideways consolaidtion.
Aussie (0.7525) has immediate trend resistance near 0.7550 which if holds can produce a short decline towards 0.7450 again. A break above 0.7550 is needed within the current upmove in order to see a straight rally towards 0.760-0.7650 or higher in the medium term. Watch price action near 0.7550.
Pound (1.3773) has support near 1.3758 and while that holds, Pound can rise in the near term towards 1.3840.
Dollar-Yen (114.03) is rising as expected and could head towards 114.50 before reversing from there. A broad range of 113-114.50 can hold for now.
USDCNY (6.3826) trades above 6.3750. While the support holds, a rise towards 6.41/44 looks likely.
USDINR (74.9625) fell from 75.1650, below our expected resistance at 75.20/25. While the resistance holds, a fall to 74.90 is possible. A break below 74.90, if seen will bring in 74.70/50 into the picture indicating a fall in the near term. For now watch price action within 74.90-75.20/25 region.
The US Treasury Yields continue to remain lower. The far-end yields have key near-term supports which if broken can trigger a deeper fall in the coming weeks. The German yields are likely to remain below their crucial long-term resistances and see a fresh fall in the coming weeks. The 10Yr and the 5Yr GoI remains mixed and are stuck in a narrow range. The narrow consolidation can continue for some more time before we see a fresh fall.
The US 2Yr (0.46%) and the 5Yr (1.20%) yields have inched up slightly while the 10Yr (1.63%) remains stable and the 30Yr (2.05%) has dipped further. The yields will have to dip below 1.6% (10Yr) and 2% (30Yr) in order to come under pressure to see a deeper fall to 1.5% (10Yr) and 1.9%-1.85% (30Yr). Such a break is needed to reduce the chances of seeing a rise past 1.75% (10Yr) and 2.2% (30Yr).
The German 2Yr (-0.67%), 5Yr (-0.45%) and the 10Yr (-0.12%) yields remain stable while the 30Yr (0.24%) has dipped slightly. The broader view remains bearish to see a fall to 0.1%-0% on the 30Yr on a break below 0.2%. The 10Yr can fall to -0.2% and lower while it remains below the -0.1%/-0.05% resistance zone.
The Indian 10Yr GoI (6.3630%) sustains stable above 6.33%. As mentioned yesterday, 6.3%-6.4% can be the range of consolidation for some time. While below 6.4%, we remain bearish to see a fall to 6.2% and lower levels. We reiterate that a strong break above 6.4% is needed to move further up towards 6.45%-6.5%.
The 5Yr GoI (5.7347%) is stuck between 5.71% and 5.7450% within its overall 5.66%-5.76% range. As mentioned yesterday, 5.7%-5.76% could be a narrow range of trade for now. A rise to 5.76% is possible while above 5.7% in the near-term.