‘Wakanda Forever’ Conquering $55M-$60M Over Thanksgiving Stretch, ‘Strange World’ Thrown


THANKSGIVING AM: It’s theatrical forever for Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever which is coming in ahead of yesterday afternoon’s estimates with $10M, but not so much for Disney Animation’s Strange World which did $4.2M yesterday. This will translate, per industry estimates, into a 3-day and 5-day of $43M and $55M-$60M, respectively, for Wakanda Forever, and a disastrous 3-and 5-day of $15.8M and $20M-$23M for Strange World which cost a reported $135M. That’s not the worst for a Disney animated pic, particularly over Thanksgiving, but it’s damn close: Their $140M original animation movie Treasure Planet was in freefall back in 2003 with a 3-day of $12M and $16.5M.

One former Disney exec once told me, “They’re very good at making the best worst case decision” and in the scenario of Strange World, that’s sending it to Disney+ by the holidays. Even though the pic is tanking in theaters, that type of big screen release will at least give it some mojo in ancillaries. Everybody remember that as theatrical tries to finds its footing, especially among these adult titles which aren’t finding an audience (either that or else it’s a case of too many niche movies in the marketplace cannibalizing each other).

Speaking of adult titles, while Sony and Black Label Media’s Devotion per public box office reporting is seeing $1.8M from yesterday at 3,405 theaters, and $10.2M for the 5-day and a 3-day of $6.1M, industry sources tell us this AM that Netflix’s sneak preview of release of Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery is killing off all adult competition, and it’s only in 638 theaters. We hear Wednesday was very close to $2M-$2.5M, with the 3-day and 5-day projected out to $8.5M and $10M-$12.3M, which is amazing for adult counterprogramming right now. We’ll update you if Netflix reports numbers.

If the Rian Johnson-directed, Ram Bergman-produced whodunnit sequel arrives at the high end, that’s a massive $19,2K theater average and proof adults still want to go to the movies (by comparison, Fabelmans, if it sticks to its 5-day number, will do a theater average of $4,7K). As we told you previously, particularly as many of these films post single digits, they’re too niche, hence their lower ticket sales. Any development executive wrecking their head over what works right now on the big screen among older adults, go splash some cold water on your face and remember last year’s starry crime caper package from Ridley Scott: House of Gucci with Lady Gaga, Adam Driver, Jared Leto and Al Pacino. That movie, when there were more concerns about Covid, posted a $14.4M 3-day and $22M 5-day. Just a refresher on the type of films which get adults out.

Knives Out 2 is burying such adult fare as ($1.1M Wednesday, $5M second weekend and $7M 5-day), Bones and All ($921K Wed, $2.4M 3-day and $3.9M 5-day) and Universal’s expansion of Amblin’s The Fabelmans which did $400K at 638 theaters for a forecasted $2.2M 3-day and $3M 5-day.

And get this: iSpot shows that Netflix spent less than the majors to open Glass Onion with $4.3M in TV spots to Disney’s $16M on Strange World, Sony’s $14.8M on Devotion, Searchlight’s $10.8M on The Menu and Uni’s $8.5M on The Fabelmans.

'Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery'

Daniel Craig as Benoit Blanc in ‘Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery’

Netflix

RelishMix reports that Knives Out 2 had a massive social media reach of 307.7M, a near 3x increase from the first one which opened to $26.7M and $41.1M back in 2018. Among those socially activated on the cast there’s Kate Hudson at 17.7M, Dave Bautista at 15.4M, Edward Norton at 4.1M, Janelle Monáe at 7.4M while Daniel Craig is still off the grid.

Says RelishMix about the buzz, “Convo on Glass Onion runs positive with mixed curiosity on how it will stack up to the success of version one. Fans speculate from materials, whodunnit in the cast with chatter about the ‘smoothest transition for a 007 ever’ — as well as support for Dave Bautista’s tattoos and adoration for Edward Norton, Kate Hudson and Janelle Monáe. Fans are threading about the sliding streaming windows and openly debating whether to wait or go — while wondering about how surprising the reveals in the story will play.”

Strange World received four stars on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak and a B CinemaScore. Men over 25 were dominant at 33%, but hated it at 66%. Women over 25 were next in attendance at 24% but gave it a 90% grade; then men under 25 at 23% and 83% grade and women under 25 at 21% who gave the pic its best grade at 92%. Diversity demos were 47% Caucasian, 25% Asian, 22% Hispanic and 6% Black. Not a flashy recommend at 55%. RelishMix noticed that Strange World awareness levels on social were 22% below norms for family animated films at 172M. The campaign on Disney’s social runs on the cross-promotion momentum from the studio’s social network is at 107.7M and Disney Animation’s at 26.2M across Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok, including cast at 217.2M with total views at 38.2M across all channels.  

Sony Pictures Entertainment / Courtesy Everett Collection

Devotion gets 5 stars on PostTrak, a 90% score. Diversity demos were 61% Caucasian, 19% Black, 11% Hispanic and Latino, and 6% Asian. Men over 25 were large at 49% (88% grade), women over 25 at 33% (95% grade), men under 25 at 12% (76%) and women under 25 at 6% (100%).

MGM /Courtesy Everett Collection

Bones and All gets a B Cinemascore and 3 stars on PostTrak. The Timothee Chalmet fans were the majority on this film with women under 25 at 32% but at a 73% grade. Men over 25 were next at 25% but with a low 58% grade, then women over 25 at 23% and 76% and men under 25 at 19% and an 80% grade.

While ticket sales will decline today due to the holiday by 16%, they’ll be up by tomorrow on Black Friday, a big day for moviegoing, by +93%.

1) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Dis), 4,258 (-138) theaters, Wed $10M (+6% from Tuesday)/3-day $43M (-35%)/5-day $55M-$60M/Total: $363.7M/Wk 3
Should the Ryan Coolger-directed sequel come in at the high-end, it will be 6% ahead of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness through 17 days.

2.) Strange World (Dis) 4,174 theaters, Wed $4.2M/3-day $15.8M, 5-day $20M-$23M/Wk 1

3.) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) 638 theaters, Wed. $2M-$2.5M, 3-day $8.5M, 5-day $10M-$12.3M/Wk 1

4.) Devotion (Sony) 3,405 theaters, Wed $1.8M, 3-day $6.1M 5 day $10.2M/Wk 1

5.) The Menu (Sea), 3,288 (+17) theaters Wed $1.1M  (-15% from Tues) 3-day $5M (-44%)/5-day $7M /Total $18.3M/Wk 2
Ten day total on this Anya Taylor Joy genre pic will be 14% ahead of Midsommar vs. the same period.

6.) Black Adam (NL) 2,847 (-525) theaters, Wed $660K (-4%), 3-day $2.7M (-41%) 5-day $4M /Total $162.3M/Wk 6

7.) Bones and All (UAR) 2,727 (+2,722) theaters,  Wed $921K (+8671%) 3-day $2.4M (+1913%), 5-day $3.9M Total $4M/Wk 2

8.) The Fabelmans (Uni/Amb) 638 theaters (+634) Wed $400K (+4201%) 3-day $2.2M (+2374%) 5-day $3M Total $3.3M/Wk 3

9.) Ticket to Paradise (Uni) 2,238 (-1030) theaters, Wed $330K (-33%) 3 day $1.35M (-58%), 5-day $1.96M Total $64.4M/Wk 6

10. ) The Chosen: Season 3 (Fath) 609 (-1,430) theaters, Wed 3-day $341K (-70%) 3-day $1.285M 3-day 5-day $1.95M, Total $13M/Wk 2

Notables:

She Said (Uni), 2,022 theaters, Wed $220K 3-day $1.12M (-49%)/5-day $1.57M/Total $4.3M/Wk 2

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Early figures and take the 3-day and 5-day with a grain of salt as projections are always off at this point in a Thanksgiving stretch. Disney/Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is leading today with $9.5M, even with yesterday and a $50M Wednesday through Sunday outlook. However, Strange World, as we thought, it falling below its $30M projection with $23M-$27M. Including previews, today looks like around $4.5M to $5M for that animated movie. Encanto last year had an opening day of $7.6M. Apparently, Strange World closed the gap on early matinees with Encanto, and hopefully that momentum continues.

Sony and Black Label Media’s Devotion at 3,405 theaters is seeing $1.7M today with $9M-$10M for the 5-day, ranking third. Searchlight’s The Menu has an estimated $1M for Wednesday for $6M-$8M over 5-days.

Janelle Monáe as Andi and Kathryn Hahn as Claire in ‘Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery’, courtesy Netflix

John Wilson/Netflix

At this minute, I’m hearing erratic reports about Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. Some have it ahead of all the frosh adult counterprogramming in presales, while others do not.

WEDNESDAY AM: It’s not like people…



Read More: ‘Wakanda Forever’ Conquering $55M-$60M Over Thanksgiving Stretch, ‘Strange World’ Thrown

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